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THINK TRUTH- Endorsements for the 2009 OLYMPIA CITY COUNCIL

ENDORSEMENTS for the 2009 OLYMPIA CITY COUNCIL
James Staples

The election primary for Olympia City Council is Tuesday, August 18th. Three positions, #4, #5 and #6, have more than two candidates, so only those three will be on the primary.

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POSITION 4: -THINK TRUTH- endorses KAREN VELDHEER.

Incumbent Amy Toussley is heavily funded by the BIAW (Building Industry Association of Washington) and other special interest groups. She has supported numerous issues contrary to the will of her constituents. During her tenure, she has perfectly embodied the Council's well-deserved reputation for being opaque, non-responsive and insensitive to the will of the people.

Challenger Karen Rogers has taken substantial contributions from out-of-state interests with private agendas and no knowledge of the great many issues faced in Olympia.

Karen Veldheer is a lifelong local who has taken all of her contributions from Olympia citizens. She is beholden only to her constituents.

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POSITION 5: -THINK TRUTH- endorses JANINE GATES

Incumbent Jeff Kingsbury has a long track record of ignoring overwhelming majorities of his constituents in favor of special interests and big-money lobbyists, again including the diabolical BIAW. If the term, corporate whore, was ever applicable, it applies to Kingsbury.

Challenger Stephen Buxbaum is a good person, and his strong opposition to Kingsbury is a major plus. However, most of his funding comes from organizations and political insiders. This makes him less likely to consider his constituents as a whole.

Janine Gates, like Veldheer, is a local who is completely funded by local citizens.

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POSITION 6: -THINK TRUTH- endorses JEANNINE ROE

OH, FL, PA - McCain is Doomed

Obama Leads in All Tracking Polls
James Staples

Most of the info in this bulletin is derived from a site called FiveThirtyEight.com, so called because there are 538 votes in the Electoral College. This is a very awesome tracking poll site. It includes a huge number of polls, pretty much every poll out there. It breaks down statistical data every way it can be broken down, and it explains how each poll is weighted (or not). It shows probability graphs for which candidate is predicted to win the popular vote, the electoral vote and it includes large quantities of data about senate seats.

The data that really caught my eye were these:
The probability of Obama winning the election if he loses Ohio is 78.91%

The probability of Obama winning the election if he loses Ohio & Florida is 70.63%

The probability of Obama winning the election if he loses Ohio, Florida & Pennsylvania is 2.74%

The probability of McCain winning the election if he loses Ohio is 0.06%

The probability of McCain winning the election if he loses Ohio & Florida is 0.00%

The probability of McCain winning the election if he loses Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania is 0.00%

The result of averaging two or three dozen national and state polls shows the projected winners of these three states as follows:

Florida: Obama wins by 2.5%
Ohio: Obama wins by 3.4%
Pennsylvania: Obama wins by 9.0%

In summary, if Obama wins any of these three states, it is extremely likely that he will win the election. Even if McCain wins all three of these states, he is still less likely to win than Obama.
There are 11 national polls listed. They are: ABC/Post, ARG, Battleground, Diageo/Hotline, Gallup, IBD/TIPP, Ipsos, Pew, Rasmussen, Research 2000 and Zogby.

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