Overview

This was unquestionably a seismic election. The first thing that jumped out was that moderate and independent voters favored Democrats by a 20 point margin. I suspect this is why Democratic leaders are now tacking toward the center in their public statements. Both sides did fine in turning out their base, so reports that GOP voters were too unhappy to vote may have been wrong.

While exit polls predictably found that Iraq was a dominant issue for voters, corruption rivaled Iraq in importance. This is surprising because the conventional wisdom was that the "Culture of Corruption" charge was not gaining traction. I suspect that the Foley scandal, while perhaps not hugely significant in and of itself, occured against a backdrop of Jack Abramoff, Tom Delay, Bob Ney, Halliburton and billions of dollars missing in Iraq, finally making the corruption charges stick. Voters were also upset by Terri Schiavo, Hurricane Katrina, immigration and a whole host of other issues.

Women voters broke strongly for the Democrats in 2006 and for the first time in a while, men narrowly (51%) did as well. Republicans appeared to be gaining ground with Hispanic voters in recent elections, however this year Hispanics voted disproportionately (69%) for Democrats.

Perhaps the clearest sign of the rout was that not a single incumbent Democratic Governor, Senator or Representative (in the federal races) was defeated in 2006.

Voting Patterns by Region in the 2006 Elections

In 1994, Republicans picked up 20 seats in the South and continued to strengthen their grip on the region, especially after Bush was elected President. In the meantime, Republicans in the Northeast (many of whom are moderates) have increasingly become an endangered species. 2006 may have been their death knell. Incumbent Sens. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.), Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) and Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R-M.D.) were all defeated; in New Hampshire, both congressional seats flipped to the Democrats and Republicans were massacred in the state legislature races; in Connecticut Democrats gained 2 seats; in Pennslyvania Democrats picked up 4 seats; in New York Democrats picked up 3 seats and won all the statewide races.

The Democratic tsunami which swept through much of the country weakened in the South. While the Dems were able to cherry pick a few victories -- most notably Mike Beebe's victory in the Arkansas Governor's race and Heath Shuler's congressional win in North Carolina -- the Republican base largely held. Virginia appears to be the border battleground state in this North vs. South battle, where Jim Webb pulled off a dramatic come-from-behind victory over Sen. George Allen.

The Democrats also gained a lot of seats in the Midwest, where voters may have blamed the federal government for their economic woes.  The Mountain West seems to be emerging as the new battleground area, though Idaho, Wyoming and Utah remain GOP fortresses. As for "The Left Coast" (Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii), the results of this election did not change the moniker associated with the region.

Future Implications

How will the results of the election play out in the future? The conventional wisdom would be that there will be a return of the extreme gridlock of divided government. However, I am not so sure. Donald Rumsfeld's firing was the first sign that things may be different. Bush may already be quacking like a lame duck, but I bet he wants his legacy to be more than just a horribly botched war. And Democrats will be eager to prove they can lead. Both will want to show they can get something productive done.

But there are problems with this theory. First, from what I have read and seen on FOX News, Congressional Republicans are angry and blame Bush for much of their woes. Unlike Bush, I see little which would motivate them to work with the Democratic leadership. The President may have as much of a headache to contend with on his own side as he does with the opposition.

Second, Democrats might be willing to work with Bush on some issues, but they certainly have not laid down their arms. In the House, soon to be Committee Chairmen John Conyers (Judiciary) and Henry Waxman (Government Reform) will be eager to apply congressional oversight to the White House. Once the subpoenas and document requests start flying, it could get ugly. Over in the Senate, incoming Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) & Co. will likely block the most conservative of Bush's judicial nominees. And, of course, Iraq will still be a huge and possibly intractable issue. It will be interesting to see how Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee, including incoming chairman Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), Joseph Lieberman (I-D/Conn.), Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will handle the confirmation hearings of Rumsfeld's successor, Robert Gates.

Finally, the opening gun of the 2008 Presidential Election has been sounded and the shadow of the race will only increase as the months go on. But that is a topic for another entry.