Pentagon admits extent of Iraq disorder

With Iraq the overriding issue for voters in the elections to Congress, the grim portrayal from the US Central Command, which has responsibility for the Middle East, can only provide further ammunition for Democrats in the last few days of campaigning before next Tuesday's vote.

The polls indicate that the Democrats will gain the 15 seats needed to retake control of the House of Representatives, which the Republicans have controlled since 1994. The Senate, where the Democrats need six seats is more of long shot.

The classified briefing, obtained by the New York Times, features a colour-coded bar chart, showing the rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq. The bar is green at one end, signifying peace, red at the other signifying chaos. The current indicator is practically in the red area.

The briefing contains a summary that includes phrases such as "urban areas experiencing 'ethnic cleansing' campaigns to consolidate control" and "violence at all-time high, spreading geographically."

The Pentagon cites increasing activity by militias and the ineffectiveness of Iraqi government security forces, which in some cases have been infiltrated by the very militias they are supposed to be fighting. The slide notes that "ineffectual" Iraqi police forces have also been a significant problem, and cites sectarian conflicts between Iraqi security forces.

The US has shown signs of increasing impatience with the Iraqi security forces and the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, for failing to curb the sectarian violence. In a move that threatens to further strain his relations with the White House, Mr Maliki yesterday ordered a stop to joint US-Iraqi checkpoints around the Shia militant stronghold of Sadr city and other parts of Baghdad.

There are some bright spots in the Pentagon briefing which said "hostile rhetoric" by political and religious leaders had not increased. It also noted that Iraqi security forces were refusing less often to take orders from the central government and that there had been a drop in mass desertions. Iraq remains the dominant issue for voters and still favours the Democrats, a poll showed today, with less than a week to the midterm elections.

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows president George Bush benefiting from a strong economy with 46% of voters approving his economic record and 48% disapproving, a big gain from 39% approval and 56% disapproval in June.

But the Iraq war continues to dog Mr Bush and the Republicans. Most voters (36%) say Iraq is the most important issue in the election and 52% want Democrats rather Republicans to control Congress compared to 37% in favour of the Republicans. The margin matches the widest ever recorded on this question in a Journal/NBC poll.

The survey of 1,010 registered voters conducted from October 28-30, does not take into account the vagaries of races for individual Senate seats or House districts and the Republicans still have several factors in their favour in the House. The Republicans can count on the power of incumbency, district boundaries drawn to favour them and an efficient get-out-the-vote machine. They could also benefit from the resurgence of "moral values" as an issue.

Republicans have sought to make political capital of last week's New Jersey supreme court decision that same-sex couples should enjoy the same rights and benefits in the state as heterosexual married couples. But the pivotal issue for voters remains Iraq.

link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1936708,00.html