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Submitted by Robert Whitlock on Fri, 11/25/2005 - 4:33pm.
Not exactly Olympia specific - but very close!

By Alicia Mundy Seattle Times Washington bureau

WASHINGTON — It was after 11 p.m. on Friday when Rep. Norm Dicks finally left the Capitol, fresh from the heated House debate on the Iraq war. He was demoralized and angry.
[...]
Dicks now says it was all a mistake — his vote, the invasion, and the way the United States is waging the war.
[...]
"The insurgency has gotten worse and worse," he said. "That's where Murtha's rationale is pretty strong — we're talking a lot of casualties with no success in sight. The American people obviously know that this war is a mistake."

Dicks, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, says he's particularly angry about the intelligence that supported going to war.

Without the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), he said, he would "absolutely not" have voted for the war.

Link to the rest of the article.
»

Article: Dicks, a member of t

Article: Dicks, a member of the House Intelligence Committee

The Fire: This should be enough to know that he viewed the intelligence which the U.S. had on file. He didn't have, or need, to listen to President Bush or Vice-President Cheney, since his level of access would mean he had a variety of options available to him, from speaking to members of the intelligence community to viewing actual intelligence files.

I'm not saying the conflict right now is right, I'm simply saying that now the political machine, sensing the public is beginning to rumble, is going into full red-alert. They (politicians) are now trying to figure out how to save themselves for the next election.

The conflict in Iraq was, evidently, a breakdown in the intelligence community. There are a wide-variety of reasons for this, most of which have to do with the political machine.

Article: "The insurgency has gotten worse and worse," he said.

The Fire: The insurgency is irrelevent to the initial invasion. We have already fought one conflict and we are now fighting another. A lot of mistakes were made which could have reduced the risk or even eliminated the need for an insurgency but we're too far beyond the point of no return. I cannot stress enough that, even if you hate President Bush and this conflict with every drop of blood in your body, leaving Iraq right now would be a disaster in the long-term.

Right now would be a good time to adopt Cold War policy in Latin America and favor stability over democracy. Only then will we be able to leave the country.

»

Retired General William Owen

Retired General William Owen (US Army), is a senior fellow of the Hudson Institute, who served as Director of the NSA from '85 to '88, and from '81 to '85 served as Assistant Cheif of Staff for Intelligence.
Odom cites nine basic arguments for staying in Iraq. Odom then proceeds to show that these nine arguments for staying in Iraq are all, in reality, arguments for leaving.

One: A withdrawal would create a civil war. Odom says civil war is already happening in Iraq. "The longer we stay, the worse the civil war will be.

Two: The world will not support a withdrawal. Odom says world support will be gained by a withdrawal. "The Europeans and other countries are engaging in "schadenfreude;" that is, enjoying our pain in Iraq."

Three: If we leave, we would embolden the insurgency. Odom says Iraqi insurgents are more emboldened by our ongoing two-and-a-half-year occupation. "There are many angry young Arabs, and not just poor ones, also well-trained ones, who see the opportunity to cause pain to American soldiers as a great gain."

Four: If we withdraw, we will create a terrorist haven. Odom says Iraq is already worse than a haven. It's a training ground.

Five: If we withdraw, we would invite Iranian influence in Iraq. Odom says our occupation has increased Iran's influence on Iraq.

Six: If we withdraw, unrest would spread to other nations. Odom says more unrest will spread to other nations if we stay.

Sunni-Shi'ite clashes will increase. Odom says more clashes will be prompted if we stay."We're allowing them to really get trained so that they can have a bloody, bloody sectarian conflict."

Eight: Iraq's military and police will be unprepared. Odom says the problem is not the military. It's the military and police disloyalty to the new Iraq government.

Nine: Talk of withdrawal undercuts the morale of troops. Odom says the weary troops favor the questioning of the U.S.-Iraq policy.

»

Deeply troubling, for certain

Deeply troubling, for certain, however the problem is approached.
»

All one would need to do is l

All one would need to do is look at what happened after Vietnam once the U.S. left.

There are plenty of Vietnamese in Olympia who left as South Vietnam was collapsing and even some who stayed and were severely punished for helping the U.S. The same would happen in Iraq, too.

Rob Richards: A withdrawl would create a civil war

The Fire: Of course it would and of course there is a civil war taking place right now. This is why creating, at the least, two different countries would solve this problem. Three would be ideal but two should get the job done.

All of this is theory. The only way we're going to know for sure what will happen is to simply pack up and leave. Better hope (Ret) Gen. Owens is right, because if the situation in Iraq and surrounding areas were to become worse we would be heading back in another generation.

»

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